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Publications

My ORCID ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3299-4866

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Submitted or in preparation

  1. Michael Fairbrother, Oscar Peralta Gutierrez and Andrew J. Black., 2024.
    Efficient estimation of epidemic final size probabilities.
  2. Dylan Morris, Lauren Kennedy and Andrew J. Black., 2024.
    Random time-shift approximation enables hierarchical Bayesian inference of mechanistic within-host viral dynamics models on large datasets..

Refereed Journal articles

  1. Pierrick Bourrat, Peter Takacs, Guilhem Doulcier, Matthew C. Nitschke, Andrew J. Black, Katrin Hammerschmidt and Paul B. Rainey, 2024.
    Individuality through ecology: Rethinking the evolution of complex life from an externalist perspective.
    Ecology and Evolution, 14, e70661, (doi:10.1002/ece3.70661)
  2. Kai Li, Edward Green, Hayden Tronnolone, Alexander Tam, Andrew J. Black, Jennifer Gardner, Joanna Sundstrom, Vladimir Jiranek, Benjamin Binder., 2024.
    An off-lattice discrete model to characterise filamentous yeast colony morphology.
    PLoS Computational Biology, 20, e1012605, (doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1012605)
  3. Luke O'Loughlin, John Maclean and Andrew J. Black., 2024.
    Neural Likelihood Approximation for Integer Valued Time Series Data.
    Transactions on Machine Learning Research, October, 2024, (link to pdf)
  4. Dylan Morris, John Maclean and Andrew J. Black., 2024.
    Computation of random time-shift distributions for stochastic population models.
    Journal of Mathematical Biology, 89, 33, (doi:10.1007/s00285-024-02132-6)
  5. Rui Yuan, S. Ali Pourmousavi, Wen L. Soong, Andrew J. Black, Jon A. R. Liisberg, and Julian Lemos-Vinasco, 2024.
    Unleashing the benefits of smart grids by overcoming the challenges associated with low-resolution data.
    Cell Reports Physical Science, 5, 101830, (doi:10.1016/j.xcrp.2024.101830)
  6. Rui Yuan, S. Ali Pourmousavi, Wen L. Soong, Andrew J. Black, Jon A. R. Liisberg, and Julian Lemos-Vinasco, 2023.
    A synthetic dataset of Danish residential electricity prosumers.
    Scientific Data, 10, 371, (doi:10.1038/s41597-023-02271-3)
  7. Cody Nitschke, Andrew J. Black, Pierrick Bourrat and Paul B. Rainey, 2022.
    The effect of bottleneck size on evolution in nested Darwinian populations.
    Journal of Theoretical Biology, 561, 111414, (doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2023.111414)
  8. Adrian J. Marcato, Andrew J. Black, Camelia R. Walker, Dylan Morris, Niamh Meagher, David J. Price, Jodie McVernon and the Australian FFX Household Transmission Project Group, 2022.
    Learnings from the Australian First Few X Household Transmission Project for COVID-19.
    Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific, 28, 100573, (doi:10.1016/j.lanwpc.2022.100573)
  9. Freya Shearer, James Walker, Nefel Tellioglu, James M McCaw, Jodie McVernon, Andrew J. Black and Nicholas Geard, 2022.
    Rapid assessment of the risk of SARS-CoV-2 importation: Case study and lessons learned.
    Epidemics, 38, 100549, (doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100549)
  10. Amani Alahmadi, Sarah Belet, Andrew J. Black, etal., 2020.
    Influencing public health policy with data-informed mathematical models of infectious diseases: Recent developments and new challenges.
    Epidemics, 100393, (doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2020.100393)
  11. Andrew J. Black, Pierrick Bourrat and Paul B. Rainey, 2020.
    Ecological scaffolding and the evolution of individuality.
    Nature Ecology & Evolution, 4, 426-436, (doi:10.1038/s41559-019-1086-9)
  12. Robert Moss, James Wood, Damien Brown, Freya M. Shearer, Andrew J. Black, Allen Cheng, James M McCaw and Jodie McVernon, 2020.
    Coronavirus Disease Model to Inform Transmission Reducing Measures and Health System Preparedness, Australia.
    Emerging Infectious Diseases, December, (doi:10.3201/eid2612.202530)
  13. Andrew J. Black, 2019.
    Importance sampling for partially observed temporal epidemic models.
    Statistics and Computing, 29, 617-630, (doi:10.1007/s11222-018-9827-1)
  14. James Walker, Andrew J. Black and Joshua V. Ross, 2019.
    Bayesian model discrimination for partially-observed epidemic models.
    Mathematical Biosciences, 317, 108266, (doi:10.1016/j.mbs.2019.108266)
  15. Ada W. C. Yan, Andrew J. Black, James M. McCaw, Nicolas Rebuli, Joshua V. Ross, Annalisa J. Swan and Roslyn I. Hickson, 2018.
    The distribution of the time taken for an epidemic to spread between two communities.
    Mathematical Biosciences, 303, 139-147, (doi:10.1016/j.mbs.2018.07.004)
  16. James Walker, Joshua V. Ross and Andrew J. Black, 2017.
    Inference of epidemiological parameters from household stratified data.
    PLoS ONE, 12, e0185910, (doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0185910)
  17. Andrew J. Black, Nicholas Geard, James M. McCaw, Jodie McVernon and Joshua V. Ross, 2017.
    Characterising Pandemic Severity and Transmissibility from Data Collected during First Few Hundred Studies.
    Epidemics, 19, 61-73, (doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2017.01.004)
  18. Michael Lydeamore, Nigel Bean, Andrew Black and Joshua Ross, 2016.
    Choice of antiviral allocation scheme for pandemic influenza depends on strain transmissibility, delivery delay and stockpile size.
    Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 78, 293-321, (doi:10.1007/s11538-016-0144-6)
  19. Andrew J. Black and Joshua V. Ross, 2015.
    Computation of epidemic final size distributions.
    J. Theor. Biol., 367, 159-165, (doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2014.11.029)
  20. Andrew J. Black, Thomas House, M.J. Keeling and J.V. Ross, 2014.
    The effect of clumped population structure on the variability of spreading dynamics.
    J. Theor. Biol., 359, 45-53, (doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2014.05.042)
  21. J. V. Ross and Andrew J. Black, 2014.
    Contact tracing and antiviral prophylaxis in the early stages of a pandemic: The probability of a major outbreak.
    Mathematical Medicine and Biology, 78, 293-321, (doi:10.1093/imammb/dqu014)
  22. Andrew J. Black and J.V. Ross, 2013.
    Estimating a Markovian epidemic model using household serial interval data from the early stages of an epidemic.
    PLoS ONE, 8, e73420, (doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0073420)
  23. Andrew J. Black, Thomas House, M.J. Keeling and J.V. Ross, 2013.
    Epidemiological consequences of household-based antiviral prophylaxis for pandemic influenza.
    J. R. Soc. Interface, 10, 20121019, (doi:10.1098/rsif.2012.1019)
  24. Andrew J. Black and Alan J. McKane, 2012.
    Stochastic formulation of ecological models and their applications.
    Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 27, 337-345, (doi:10.1016/j.tree.2012.01.014)
  25. Andrew J. Black, Arne Traulsen and Tobias Galla, 2012.
    Mixing times in evolutionary game dynamics.
    Phys. Rev. Lett., 109, 28101, (doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett.109.028101)
  26. Andrew J. Black and Alan J. McKane, 2011.
    WKB calculation of an epidemic outbreak distribution.
    J. Stat. Mech., P12006, (doi:10.1088/1742-5468/2011/12/P12006)
  27. Andrew J. Black and Alan J. McKane, 2010.
    Stochasticity in staged models of epidemics: quantifying the dynamics of whooping cough.
    J. R. Soc. Interface, 7, 1219-1227, (doi:10.1098/rsif.2009.0514)
  28. Andrew J. Black and Alan J. McKane, 2010.
    Stochastic amplification in an epidemic model with seasonal forcing.
    J. Theo. Biol., 267, 85-94, (doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2010.08.014)
  29. Andrew J. Black, Alan J. McKane, Ana Nunes and Andrea Parisi, 2009.
    Stochastic fluctuations in the susceptible-infected-recovered model with distributed infectious periods.
    Phys. Rev. E, 80, 021922, (doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.80.021922)